Background

Notes and format last updated Apr 16, 2020

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 15,171
2 New Jersey 12,818
3 Massachusetts 8,458
4 Rhode Island 7,481
5 Connecticut 7,380
6 Louisiana 5,869
7 District of Columbia 5,659
8 Delaware 4,698
9 Michigan 3,928
10 Illinois 3,795
11 Pennsylvania 3,540
12 Maryland 3,326
13 South Dakota 2,615
14 Colorado 2,472
15 Indiana 2,463
16 Georgia 2,223
17 Mississippi 2,130
18 Iowa 2,020
19 Nebraska 1,867
20 Washington 1,846
21 Virginia 1,679
22 Nevada 1,562
23 Florida 1,528
24 New Hampshire 1,478
25 Tennessee 1,468
26 Ohio 1,434
27 New Mexico 1,418
28 Vermont 1,381
29 Alabama 1,376
30 Utah 1,354
31 North Dakota 1,300
32 Kansas 1,231
33 Missouri 1,207
34 California 1,178
35 South Carolina 1,113
36 Wisconsin 1,080
37 Arkansas 1,036
38 Idaho 1,012
39 Kentucky 979
40 Arizona 954
41 Texas 926
42 North Carolina 912
43 Oklahoma 861
44 Maine 773
45 Minnesota 741
46 Wyoming 684
47 West Virginia 610
48 Oregon 565
49 Alaska 477
50 Puerto Rico 438
51 Hawaii 425
52 Montana 421

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Delaware 341
2 New Jersey 312
3 Rhode Island 250
4 Massachusetts 239
5 New York 222
6 Illinois 166
7 Connecticut 161
8 District of Columbia 139
9 Iowa 133
10 Maryland 129
11 Nebraska 122
12 Indiana 108
13 Pennsylvania 96
14 North Dakota 82
15 Virginia 77
16 Colorado 73
17 Mississippi 69
18 Michigan 68
19 South Dakota 62
20 Kansas 57
21 Louisiana 55
22 New Hampshire 53
23 Tennessee 51
24 New Mexico 49
25 Georgia 43
26 Minnesota 43
27 Utah 40
28 Alabama 36
29 Kentucky 35
30 Wisconsin 34
31 California 33
32 Ohio 33
33 North Carolina 32
34 Florida 31
35 Missouri 31
36 South Carolina 31
37 Arizona 30
38 Nevada 29
39 Texas 27
40 Washington 25
41 Arkansas 24
42 Wyoming 19
43 Oklahoma 18
44 West Virginia 13
45 Maine 12
46 Oregon 10
47 Vermont 10
48 Idaho 9
49 Puerto Rico 9
50 Alaska 5
51 Hawaii 1
52 Montana 1

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 906
2 New Jersey 725
3 Connecticut 585
4 Massachusetts 457
5 Louisiana 378
6 Michigan 357
7 District of Columbia 269
8 Rhode Island 225
9 Illinois 168
10 Pennsylvania 163
11 Maryland 153
12 Delaware 140
13 Indiana 133
14 Colorado 127
15 Washington 104
16 Georgia 96
17 Mississippi 80
18 Vermont 75
19 Nevada 73
20 Ohio 68
21 Virginia 57
22 Florida 54
23 Minnesota 53
24 Missouri 52
25 New Mexico 52
26 Oklahoma 52
27 Kentucky 51
28 Wisconsin 51
29 Alabama 49
30 California 47
31 New Hampshire 44
32 Iowa 43
33 Kansas 43
34 Arizona 40
35 Maine 37
36 South Carolina 37
37 Idaho 33
38 North Carolina 33
39 Nebraska 29
40 Tennessee 28
41 Texas 25
42 North Dakota 24
43 Oregon 23
44 West Virginia 21
45 Arkansas 18
46 Puerto Rico 16
47 Montana 14
48 Utah 14
49 South Dakota 12
50 Wyoming 12
51 Hawaii 11
52 Alaska 9

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Connecticut 21
2 New Jersey 21
3 Massachusetts 20
4 New York 17
5 District of Columbia 11
6 Michigan 9
7 Delaware 8
8 Louisiana 8
9 Maryland 7
10 Rhode Island 7
11 Illinois 6
12 Pennsylvania 6
13 Indiana 5
14 Colorado 3
15 Georgia 3
16 Minnesota 3
17 Iowa 2
18 Mississippi 2
19 Missouri 2
20 Nevada 2
21 New Mexico 2
22 Ohio 2
23 Virginia 2
24 Washington 2
25 Alabama 1
26 Arizona 1
27 California 1
28 Florida 1
29 Kentucky 1
30 North Carolina 1
31 North Dakota 1
32 Oklahoma 1
33 South Carolina 1
34 Wisconsin 1
35 Alaska 0
36 Arkansas 0
37 Hawaii 0
38 Idaho 0
39 Kansas 0
40 Maine 0
41 Montana 0
42 Nebraska 0
43 New Hampshire 0
44 Oregon 0
45 Puerto Rico 0
46 South Dakota 0
47 Tennessee 0
48 Texas 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
New York New York 99,679 1 99
Lincoln Arkansas 57,970 2 99
Bledsoe Tennessee 39,100 3 99
Rockland New York 35,155 4 99
Marion Ohio 33,660 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 3,728 202 93
Richland South Carolina 2,078 449 85
Pierce Washington 1,534 630 79
Orange California 692 1269 59
York South Carolina 669 1301 58

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
New York New York 7,409 1 99
Randolph Georgia 2,803 2 99
Terrell Georgia 2,110 3 99
Nassau New York 1,503 4 99
Early Georgia 1,472 5 99
Pierce Washington 56 672 78
Richland South Carolina 51 715 77
Davidson Tennessee 36 893 71
Orange California 13 1244 60
York South Carolina 11 1296 58

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons